Top posts

  • Welcome to OverBlog!

    30 March 2011

    This automated message is the first article of your blog. It will help you get started with OverBlog. You can edit or delete it by going to the "Publish" section of your administration page. Hope you'll enjoy blogging with us! The OverBlog team PS: In...

  • macro blog

    30 March 2011

    From time to time I will use this blog to make some points about recent developments in the world economy, the policy dilemmas facing fiscal and monetary authorities and different aspects of the global economic outlook. In the past I have written non-technical...

  • What combination of shocks hit the UK economy?

    01 April 2011

    The prospects for the UK economy and the debate concerning the optimal macroeconomic policy path depend in part on the kinds of shocks thought to have impacted UK markets during recent years. One perspective, which I fully endorse, is that the UK has...

  • Will the end of QE2 raise Treasury yields?

    04 April 2011

    Gavyn Davies has launched a very interesting debate on whether or not the upcoming completion of QE2 will result in a surge in Treasury yields, as a key driver of recent bond demand disappears from the market. One view is that a decline in the flow demand...

  • ECB interest rate increases likely to create more problems than they solve

    07 April 2011

    As was widely anticipated, the ECB became the first of the major central banks to raise interest rates in the current cycle. Futures trading suggests another two or three 25 basis point rate hikes by the end of 2011. The ECB, traditionally hawkish on...

  • Should the Bank of England raise interest rates?

    08 April 2011

    Following on from the ECB decision to raise interest rates, debate continues as to whether or not the Bank of England should engage a process of interest rate normalization, in order address current above target inflation. A key argument against monetary...

  • Is QE just open market operations on a grand scale?

    13 April 2011

    In the last couple of years I have often heard people express the view that quantitative easing (QE) is conventional open market operations, perhaps on an unusually large scale, but otherwise nothing to justify the title 'unconventional monetary policy'....

  • Banking reform the right move

    15 April 2011

    The Independent Commission on Banking proposed important reforms to the structure of the UK banking industry this week, including higher capital ratios for the retail sections of universal banks, ring-fencing of those parts of a bank so that they can...

  • One lender of last resort -- another cost of currency unions?

    21 April 2011

    Recent commentary has highlighted the fact that a Greek debt default would be a disaster for ECB policy-makers given the central bank's exposure to losses based on its past and prospective activities as the Euro area lender of last resort (LOLR). A 50%...

  • Future posts

    28 April 2011

    I will not be doing any posts for the next few weeks due to various teaching commitments. During the second half of May I plan to write up some thoughts on (i) the UK fiscal position, including some arguments for reducing the speed of fiscal tightening;...

  • Would QE3 support economic recovery?

    10 June 2011

    There have been a number of recent contributions making the case for QE3 in the United States following weak employment and GDP numbers. Recent market reactions to Bernanke's efforts to distance the Fed from a further round of quantitative easing prompted...

  • Topical issues in Macroeconomics

    05 August 2011

    I am currently giving a short course for summer school students at Oriel College. The lectures address recent important events in the world economy and the challenges that they pose for policy-makers. The topics include some thoughts on fiscal policy...

  • Is QE just open market operations on a grand scale? An update

    21 September 2011

    After reading Marvin Goodfriend's excellent JME article on Fed policy during the crisis I need to update an earlier post on how QE relates to conventional open market operations (OMOs) . In that piece I noted that traditional OMOs keep the size of the...

  • What should be the priority for UK tax policy?

    21 September 2011

    During the last couple of weeks there have been conflicting assessments of the priorities for income tax cuts in the UK. A group of economists argued for scrapping the 50p top rate on the grounds that it is undermining national competitiveness and growth...

  • Operation Twist: The Next Tool of Unconventional Monetary Policy

    22 September 2011

    The Federal Reserve has announced plans to implement Operation Twist over the next 10 months. During that time the Fed will use proceeds from sales of Treasury debt with less than three years to maturity to re-invest in longer maturity Treasury bonds....

  • The sovereign debt crisis and the costs of currency unions

    26 September 2011

    As the search for a solution to the debt crisis affecting Greece and other European countries continues it's natural to ask exactly what part the constraints associated with monetary union have played in the origins and propagation of the crisis, and...

  • UK needs to combine QE2 with credit easing

    06 October 2011

    The Bank of England's decision to resume quantitative easing through a further £75bn of asset purchases is a necessary step forward in an economy in which the outlook for private, government and foreign demand is bleak. In order for the move to have a...

  • First thoughts on UK credit easing: Divide in access to credit to remain

    20 March 2012

    A key feature of credit markets in the aftermath of the credit crunch has been extreme inequality in access to credit. Large corporations or relatively high net worth individuals perceived to have 'skin in the game' thanks to large amounts of loss absorbing...

  • first entry

    30 March 2011

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